“Catch 22” – themedideas

  • Saturday, February 15th, 2014

“Catch 22” Latest Update No 5 (15.02.2014.)

Delhi Darbaar!

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Cabinet rules out Kejriwal, seeks Prez rule in Delhi:

The Union Cabinet, which held a meeting on Saturday evening, has decided to recommend the imposition of President’s Rule in Delhi.

The Cabinet will make the recommendation to the President.
The Delhi Assembly will be placed under suspended animation.
The Cabinet’s decision comes in the wake of Arvind Kejriwal stepping down as the Delhi CM after he failed to table the Jan Lokpal Bill in the assembly.
Kejriwal had earlier sought dissolution of the assembly and fresh polls in Delhi.

 No over-enthusiasm to form govt: BJP :

The BJP seemed non-committal about forming the government in Delhi, following Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s decision to step down, with the main opposition saying that while it did not favour dissolution of the House, it was ready to face fresh polls.

“There is no over-enthusiasm about forming the government. Right now, the ball is in the Lieutenant Governor’s court. Let him decide. We will happily accept any situation that (unfolds),” BJP Legislative Party leader, Harshvardhan, told reporters.
The BJP has 32 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly.
Comments: This was expected as the other parties would not want to have assembly election in Delhi now. Whatever they say is not meant. The opposition party would try to say that the centre decided not to have the election now. But they themselves do not want it now. Who wants to play a match when the deafeat is certain, especially before the “Grand Finale”?
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The other parties cannot form Government in Delhi either as then they would be considered by the “Aam Admi” as power hungry and the reason to remove the AAP Government. They are aware about the certain defeat if the Delhi Assembly poll occurs now and they do not want that before the Lok Sabha poll. But they have been compelled by AAP to inflict severe damage to their image already. Actually not having the poll would cause more damage to their image and might lead to a greater chunk of their votes to shift to AAP in the Lok Sabha poll. Whether it would be 20% or 40% of their votes would be interesting to see. It appears that AAP has almost secured at least the position of the second largest party in the Lok Sabha after this event, provided they could file enough number of candidates. Anything can happen! The effects of a storm is not predictable. It might appear too premature to say so, but the way the “jet stream” is blowing indicates that.
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The parties who are staying on the sidelines with silence with the notion that AAP would damage the major parties and they could reap the benefits are living in fool’s paradise. Their silence/inaction in relation to the recent event would be perceived by the “Aam Admi” as siding with the major parties in regards to their values and practices. So it would be AAP vs Others. Whether all the others form an anti-AAP front upfront (before election) or secret understanding would be interesting to watch.
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“Catch 22” Latest Update No 4 (15.02.2014.)
International perception
The master stroke by Arvind KejriwalSee how the event has been reported in the international media such as the BBC:”Delhi anti-corruption chief minister Arvind Kejriwal quitsDelhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has resigned after an anti-corruption bill was blocked in the state assembly.Opposition politicians blocked the bill, which would have created an independent body with the power to investigate politicians and civil servants suspected of corruption.”These are the title and first few lines. Isn’t it obvious what impressions of the other parties would be made internationally?
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“Catch 22” Latest Update 3 (14.02.2014.)
The master stroke by Arvind Kejriwal
This is a political master stroke by Arvind Kejriwal. That is the best way to maximise the benefits from the present situation. People who are laughing as they try to project that they have won the “War”, have not only lost the “War”, but not won the “Battle” even. He has cornered and compelled them to do whatever they have done. They did not have any other choice.The “Aam Admi” would perceive him as somebody who does not want to be a “Chairperson” and could even leave the chair of the Chief Minister of the Capital for a cause that nobody else would ever do. Everybody else would be considered as corrupt and chair-hungry. The perception of the common people is what mattes in “Democracy”.
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“Catch 22” Latest Update 2 (14.02.2014.)
Kejriwal writes resignation letter to Lt Gov Najeeb Jung42 against tabling bill, 27 for the bill : The numbers are: 42 against the tabling of the Bill, 27 for the Bill of a total of 70 MLAs in the Assembly.The “Game” has just started! Wait & see what happens in the Lok Sabha poll.
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“Catch 22” Latest Update 1 (14.02.2014.)
The parties in India are in a “Catch 22” situation. If they defeat the Jan Lokpal Bill that might actually lead to further uprising of “AAP”. Other parties have been compelled to dig their own graves. They, however, do not have much options. They have to choose between frying pan or fire. Something very interesting and unexpected might happen in the Lok Sabha poll as “AAP” would project itself as on one side (against corruption) and all the others on the other side. Given the resentment in the general public it is likely to provide good dividends. That is the general impression based on the public mood.
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© Dr Sudipta Paul, themedideas.com, 2014

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